Hamilton's outer ring has picked the mayor for the third straight election.
Fred Eisenberger took four of five of the major regions in Hamilton, not leaving any areas for small victories for Brad Clark and only relinquishing Dundas and West Hamilton to Brian McHattie.
While it was the lowest voter turnout in the past four elections dating back to 2003, and the lowest amount of votes cast ever, there were more than a few facts to glean from the vote numbers.
The breakdown by region, defined by CBC Hamilton in a numbers crunch from last week, showed it would take roughly 50,000 votes to win the mayor's seat, and they would need the outer ring – the four wards that make up the outlying regions of Hamilton.
Eisenberger won with 49,020 votes and took 43.1 per cent of the vote in the outer ring – narrowly beating Clark's 41.4 per cent share, and McHattie's 15.5 per cent slice.
Here are some observations from the 2014's municipal election voting patterns.
| For the purpose of this analysis, CBC Hamilton split the city into five regions: the west, (Dundas and Westdale, Wards 1 &13), the downtown (Wards 2 & 3), the mountain (Wards 6, 7, 8), the east (including Stoney Creek, Wards 4, 8, 9 & 10) and the outer ring (including Ancaster, Wards 11, 12, 14 & 15). |
Where did you voters go?
Voter turnout was just 34.02 per cent – the lowest turnout in the last four elections – so what wards lost the most? The downtown (Ward 2) saw the biggest drop (nearly a 15 point drop in turnout), while Ward 11 (Glanbrook, Stoney Creek, Winona), Stoney Creek, and the entire Mountain dropped by roughly 11 to 12 per cent each. Ward 2 had an open race last time, while this time, Farr, the incumbent was running and won re-election.
Downtown voter turnout plummets
With voter turnout at 25.9 and 24.1 per cent in Wards 2 and 3, respectively, there's not much impact the downtown wards could have had on the mayor's seat. McHattie edged out Eisenberger by 0.01 per cent of the vote in Ward 2 (by just one vote), but otherwise the downtown wards combined for 11,499 votes – roughly the same impact as Central and West mountain each had, individually.
Where did the Mountain go?
With incumbents Tom Jackson (Ward 6), Scott Duvall (Ward 7) and Terry Whitehead (Ward 8) all re-elected, the Mountain didn't head out to the polls. Citywide, there were 18,382 fewer votes cast, 61.9 per cent of which were lost on the Mountain.
Eisenberger's support is widely dispersed
By ward, the mayor-to-be lost six of 15 wards. But if you look at the five defined regions defined by CBC Hamilton, Eisenberger's support is more widely spread out than first glance. The combined results paint a more homogeneous picture, with only Dundas and Cootes supporting McHattie. Clark won the other four that Eisenberger lost. But Clark did not take any of the five regions, falling by short margins in both East Hamilton (which includes Stoney Creek, his former ward) and the outer ring.
Look out for Wentworth
Ward 14 saw incumbent Robert Pasuta cruise to victory, but, unlike many other wards without open ward races or vacated seats, the ward still came out to vote. Ward 14 dropped roughly four points in voter turnout – the same as Dundas, tying for the fewest lost votes by percentage – but still came out in big support of Clark in a losing effort.
A strong, and understandably split, fringe vote
Eisenberger won by 10,314 votes, fewer votes than the combined fringe vote, which tallied 11,804 total votes if you combine all the candidates outside the top three. While there is no predicting how (or if) they would have voted if forced to chose between the top three candidates, there is a clear message that nearly one in 10 voters (9.4 per cent) wanted someone other than Eisenberger, Clark or McHattie. Early polling numbers from Forum Research suggested that number could have been as high as one in six.
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