McMaster professor predicts early 2013 leadership vote
By Samantha Craggs, CBC News
Posted: Oct 15, 2012 9:34 PM ET
Last Updated: Oct 15, 2012 9:37 PM ET
Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty speaks to the media at Queen's Park after announcing his resignation in Toronto on Monday, Oct. 15. (Michelle Siu/The Canadian Press) A Hamilton expert says there is no obvious heir apparent to take Premier Dalton McGuinty's position as leader of the provincial Liberal party.
Henry Jacek, a political science professor at McMaster University, says there are no stand-outs among the Liberal cabinet to make a leadership run.
Health minister Deb Matthews may vie for the leadership, Jacek said. Yasir Naqvi, president of the Ontario Liberal Party, would make a good choice, but likely won't be ready to run.
"It's not really clear who's going to succeed here," he said. "It's going to take a while."
On Monday evening, McGuinty made a surprise announcement that he was stepping down as premier and leader of the Liberal party. He is also proroguing the legislature to work on negotiating wage-freeze agreements for public-sector workers.
The coming months will see an acting premier and a new Liberal cabinet, Jacek said. He predicts a leadership convention early in 2013.
Environment Minister Jim Bradley, a St. Catharines MPP since 1977, would be a natural interim premier, Jacek said. Bradley has "very good political instincts" and is unlikely to make a leadership run.
"I could see him as acting premier," Jacek said. "Maybe he could stabilize the situation."
Jacek was part of a delegation at Queen's Park last month, when the subject of McGuinty stepping down was broached. McGuinty said then that he wouldn't step down, Jacek recalls, but "a lot has happened since then."
By focusing on the deficit, the McGuinty government has sandwiched itself between unwilling unions and opposition parties.
The wage-freeze agreements are "sort of a centerpiece of their deficit reduction strategy," Jacek said. "I just could not see how the government could carry on when its economic plan is not working."
Jacek doubts McGuinty will run for the federal Liberal leadership.
Rather, the premier "likely realized he'd gone down a road that was really going nowhere," Jacek said. "He wasn't having fun anymore and it was having a negative impact on his family, so it was time to turn it over to someone else."
At 57, McGuinty "is probably just looking for a rest."
The next few months will be interesting to watch, Jacek said.
"There's a lot we don't know, but the impact is very dramatic."
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